In connection with the import substitution task for Russian enterprises in order to ensure the country economic security, diversification becomes a key tool for the production enterprise development. Diversification is known to be one of the riskiest development strategies for any organization. For a productive enterprise that has been forced or consciously chosen diversification as a tool for its development, the diversification risks comprehensive assessment mechanism is needed. The article discusses the algorithm for marginal target costs determining as one of the factors for the risk level assessing. Proposed method allows to take into account technical and consumer characteristics of investigated object in comparison with competitor in ultimate target costs determination of the product. Based on this comparison, the product possible price is determined, which shows the product competitiveness level, and therefore allows you to assess diversification strategy implementing risks. The proposed evaluation algorithm was tested on complex technical equipment (lifting and transportation), however, it should be noted that the proposed methodology is universal and can be applied to any technical object.