The efficient and sustainable use of renewable energy sources requires an accurate power generation forecasting. This paper considers the application and comparison of ensemble algorithm based on decision tree for solar power forecasting for Mongolia power system. The input data for the machine learning model are historical data on power generation for 2019-2021 years of six photo-voltaic power plants operating in central power system of Mongolia and meteorological data in these power plants. Ensemble machine learning model allows to determine the non-linear and non-stationary dependence of the time series and besides can be implemented in the task of forecasting the daily generation schedule. The proposed model creates a day ahead forecast of hourly generation curve of the photo-voltaic power plants under consideration with a normalized absolute percentage error 6.5 - 8.4%. Increasing the accuracy of solar power forecasting can positively affect the operation and planning of the central power system of Mongolia. © 2023 IEEE.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2023 Belarusian-Ural-Siberian Smart Energy Conference, BUSSEC 2023
Subtitle of host publicationbook
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages84-87
ISBN (Print)979-835035807-0
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023
Event2023 Belarusian-Ural-Siberian Smart Energy Conference (BUSSEC) - УрЭНИН УрФУ, Екатеринбург, Russian Federation
Duration: 25 Sept 202329 Sept 2023

Conference

Conference2023 Belarusian-Ural-Siberian Smart Energy Conference (BUSSEC)
Country/TerritoryRussian Federation
CityЕкатеринбург
Period25/09/202329/09/2023

ID: 49265967